Oscars 2021 Predictions

oscars 2021 predictions nomadland mank promising young woman father oscar statue mask coronavirus soderbergh

Oscars! I’m okay-ish at predicting these, I think – last year I got 17, which was decent, and the year before that 12, which is slightly better than what you’d get guessing completely at random – but I’m hoping that this year I do marginally better. We’ll see, I suppose.

A word on the format: the nominees are listed below in order of predicted likelihood (so I expect Nomadland will win Best Picture, but if not The Trial of the Chicago 7 strikes me as the second most likely, so on). Three points for a correct first guess, two points for a correct second guess, one point for a correct third guess, you get the idea.

You can find the full list of nominees here (and I assume that page will be updated with the winners eventually), but otherwise, my predictions are as follows:

Best Picture:

Nomadland

The Trial of the Chicago 7

The Father

Best Director:

Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round

David Fincher, Mank

Best Actor:

Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Anthony Hopkins, The Father

Gary Oldman, Mank

Best Actress:

Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Frances McDormand, Nomadland

Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Best Supporting Actor:

Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

Best Supporting Actress:

Youn Yuh-Jung, Minari

Olivia Colman, The Father

Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Best Original Screenplay:

Promising Young Woman

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Minari

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Nomadland

The Father

One Night in Miami

Best International Feature:

Another Round

Collective

The Man Who Sold His Skin

Best Documentary Feature:

My Octopus Teacher

Crip Camp

Time

Best Animated Feature:

Soul

Wolfwalkers

Onward

Best Film Editing:

Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Nomadland

Best Original Song:

“Speak Now” from One Night in Miami

“Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest

“Io Si (Seen)” from The Life Ahead

Best Original Score:

Soul

Mank

News of the World

Best Cinematography:

Nomadland

Mank

News of the World

Best Costume Design:

Mank

Emma

Mank

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Emma

Mank

Best Production Design:

Mank

News of the World

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Sound:

Sound of Metal

Soul

Greyhound

Best Visual Effects:

Tenet

Love and Monsters

The Midnight Sky

Best Animated Short:

If Anything Happens I Love You

Genius Loci

Yes-People

Best Documentary Short:

Colette

A Love Song for Latasha

A Concerto is a Conversation

Best Live-Action Short:

Two Distant Strangers

The Letter Room

White Eye

I’ve not actually written about most of these films, or even had the chance to watch many of them, but you can find my round-up of all the films I saw across 2020 here, and my reviews of Another Round and One Night in Miami here.

You can find more of my writing about film here, and follow me on twitter @morelandwriter. If you enjoyed this piece – though I can’t think why you would, it’s just a list – perhaps consider leaving a tip on ko-fi?

Oscars 2019 Predictions

oscars 2019 predictions roma green book a star is born shallow lady gaga olivia colman rami malek host monologue

Here are my predictions – well, they’re only nominally predictions, in many cases they’re closer to abject guesses – for who’s going to win what at the Academy Awards tonight.

It’s worth noting what the bracketed entries mean – I do these with a friend each year, and it’s three points for your first guess, two for second, one for third. So the brackets are what’s next-most-likely, from my ill-informed vantage point.

You can find the full list of nominees here, if you – like me – tend to forget what the rest of them actually are. Otherwise, my predictions are as follows:

Best PictureA Star is Born (Green Book, Roma)

Best Director – Alfonso Cuarón (Spike Lee, Yorgos Lanthimos)

Best CinematographyRoma (The Favourite, Cold War)

Best Actress – Glenn Close (Lady Gaga, Olivia Colman)

Best Actor – Rami Malek (Viggo Mortensen, Christian Bale)

Best Supporting Actress – Regina King (Amy Adams, Rachel Weisz)

Best Supporting Actor – Richard E Grant (Mahershala Ali, Sam Eliott)

Best Original ScreenplayRoma (First Reformed, Green Book)

Best Adapted ScreenplayBlackKklansman (Can You Ever Forgive Me?, If Beale Street Could Talk)

Best Foreign Language FilmCold War (Roma, Shoplifters)

Best Animated FeatureSpider-Man: Into the Spiderverse (Isle of Dogs, Incredibles 2)

Best Animated ShortBao

Best Live Action ShortFauve

Best Documentary ShortBlack Sheep

Best Documentary FeatureFree Solo (Minding the Gap, RBG)

Best Original ScoreIf Beale Street Could Talk (BlackKklansman, Mary Poppins)

Best Original SongShallow (The Place Where Lost Things Go, I’ll Fight)

Best Sound MixingBohemian Rhapsody (A Star is Born, First Man)

Best Sound EditingBohemian Rhapsody (A Quiet Place, First Man)

Best Production DesignThe Favourite (First Man, Roma)

Best Costume DesignThe Favourite (Black Panther, Mary Queen of Scots)

Best Makeup and HairstylingVice (Mary Queen of Scots)

Best Visual EffectsAvengers: Infinity War (Ready Player One, Solo: A Star Wars Story)

Best Film EditingVice (Bohemian Rhapsody, Green Book)

As ever, I was quite set upon watching every nominated film; in the end, I didn’t quite manage anything remotely near that. Always the way, I suppose – hopefully I’ll do a better job across 2019. In terms of my own writing, there’s not a lot to point you towards (especially since Beautiful Boy wasn’t nominated), but I’d nonetheless highlight my interview with the team behind the sound design on A Quiet Place.

In the end, I got twelve of the twenty-four right, which I’ve underlined.

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