Oscars 2019 Predictions

oscars 2019 predictions roma green book a star is born shallow lady gaga olivia colman rami malek host monologue

Here are my predictions – well, they’re only nominally predictions, in many cases they’re closer to abject guesses – for who’s going to win what at the Academy Awards tonight.

It’s worth noting what the bracketed entries mean – I do these with a friend each year, and it’s three points for your first guess, two for second, one for third. So the brackets are what’s next-most-likely, from my ill-informed vantage point.

You can find the full list of nominees here, if you – like me – tend to forget what the rest of them actually are. Otherwise, my predictions are as follows:

Best PictureA Star is Born (Green Book, Roma)

Best Director – Alfonso Cuarón (Spike Lee, Yorgos Lanthimos)

Best CinematographyRoma (The Favourite, Cold War)

Best Actress – Glenn Close (Lady Gaga, Olivia Colman)

Best Actor – Rami Malek (Viggo Mortensen, Christian Bale)

Best Supporting Actress – Regina King (Amy Adams, Rachel Weisz)

Best Supporting Actor – Richard E Grant (Mahershala Ali, Sam Eliott)

Best Original ScreenplayRoma (First Reformed, Green Book)

Best Adapted ScreenplayBlackKklansman (Can You Ever Forgive Me?, If Beale Street Could Talk)

Best Foreign Language FilmCold War (Roma, Shoplifters)

Best Animated FeatureSpider-Man: Into the Spiderverse (Isle of Dogs, Incredibles 2)

Best Animated ShortBao

Best Live Action ShortFauve

Best Documentary ShortBlack Sheep

Best Documentary FeatureFree Solo (Minding the Gap, RBG)

Best Original ScoreIf Beale Street Could Talk (BlackKklansman, Mary Poppins)

Best Original SongShallow (The Place Where Lost Things Go, I’ll Fight)

Best Sound MixingBohemian Rhapsody (A Star is Born, First Man)

Best Sound EditingBohemian Rhapsody (A Quiet Place, First Man)

Best Production DesignThe Favourite (First Man, Roma)

Best Costume DesignThe Favourite (Black Panther, Mary Queen of Scots)

Best Makeup and HairstylingVice (Mary Queen of Scots)

Best Visual EffectsAvengers: Infinity War (Ready Player One, Solo: A Star Wars Story)

Best Film EditingVice (Bohemian Rhapsody, Green Book)

As ever, I was quite set upon watching every nominated film; in the end, I didn’t quite manage anything remotely near that. Always the way, I suppose – hopefully I’ll do a better job across 2019. In terms of my own writing, there’s not a lot to point you towards (especially since Beautiful Boy wasn’t nominated), but I’d nonetheless highlight my interview with the team behind the sound design on A Quiet Place.

In the end, I got twelve of the twenty-four right, which I’ve underlined.

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Screenwriter Luke Davies on Beautiful Boy, masculinity, and ‘manipulative’ filmmaking

beautiful boy luke davies screenwriter interview steve carrell timothee chalamet nic sheff david sheff writer script interview luke davies felix van groeningen oscars

Well, all film, including good film, is manipulative. The word has negative connotations when what it means, I think, is that ‘manipulation’ has an agenda that is deceptive and buried. Ultimately, I can support and I live with this film because the agenda is not deceptive. The books are incredibly moving and I can vouch for the fact, as an ex-addict myself, I vouch for their authenticity and their power. And as an ex-addict, or let’s say an addict who is 29 years clean and sober, I believe in the message of the film, which is not even hitting you on the head with a hammer, but which to me says there are no clearcut, black and white answers, but that love is at the centre of the answer and that there’s no guarantee that your loved one will survive the traumatic chaos of addiction.

We can’t hold your hand, but we can show [a story with] the kind of message that is you keep showing up no matter what. As filmmakers, what we tried to do was to not be morally judgmental, to not make one of those movies that is hitting you on the head with a hammer. Ultimately, yes, all films are manipulative, but I prefer the gentle flow of Beautiful Boy, which tells the story, much of which is very distressing, and gets to a point of ambiguous resolution with father and son scene at the end.

First interview I’ve done in quite some time, this! I didn’t realise it’d been so long, actually – about six months since I spoke to Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van der Ryn about A Quiet Place – but it’s a good one to come back with, I think. I’m really pleased with this piece; it goes a lot deeper, I think, than a lot of previous interviews I’ve done, and hopefully sets a new standard to try and reach in future.

In theory, I’ll have a review of Beautiful Boy up on the site in a few days time – I, admittedly, wasn’t a massive fan of the film. (That said, though, it’ll be interesting to watch the film again with this interview in mind – I wonder how much it’ll influence my opinion?)

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